Various Stuff About Weather

3/15/2023

Isle Royale weather is extremely unpredictable. Come prepared for almost all types of weather. Then...ENJOY!

"What will the weather be like June 12-17th?"

On a fairly regular basis, people post questions in online forums, asking what the Isle Royale weather will be like during the specific dates of their planned trip. (They will also ask what the "bugs" will be like during specific dates). How in the world can anyone know the answers to those two questions? Think about the town where you currently live. Can you tell me (on March 16th) what the weather will be like in that location during the 4th Week of July 2023? Will it be hot? Cold? Rainy? Will there be any severe storms? Will you encounter any flies, spiders, or mosquitos during that week?

In the same way that you cannot make accurate predictions regarding the weather in your hometown on the 4th Week of July -- neither can anyone consistently, and accurately, tell you what the weather (and "bugs") will be like on Isle Royale four months from now.

The Isle Royale Weather is VERY Unpredictable!

In the area where you reside, I suspect that people routinely make comments and jokes regarding how inaccurate the weather forecasts can be. (The weather forecaster says that it will be sunny and dry tomorrow-- with high temperatures in the low 80s. Then, tomorrow arrives, and it ends up being cloudy, rainy--with high temperatures in the low 60s).

If you think that the weather forecasts in your home area tend to be inaccurate and unpredictable, please note that the weather forecasts --for Isle Royale and Lake Superior-- tend to be much more unpredictable and changeable than they are in most people's home areas.

ALWAYS REMEMBER: ISLE ROYALE WEATHER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, DRAMATICALLY, AND WITH LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING! BE PREPARED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

I do personally check the various weather forecasts for Isle Royale (and for the greater Isle Royale area) as my trips approach. However, it has been my personal experience, that the weather forecasts are probably incorrect as often (or even more often) than they are accurate. This is especially true for the forecasts more than 24-48 hours out.

COME PREPARED FOR "EVERYTHING"

When planning their Isle Royale trip, many people tend to look at the recent Isle Royale weather forecasts (and look at the "typical" or "average" Isle weather for that time of the year) and then pack accordingly. I STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH THIS APPROACH!

I tend to look at the official RECORD low temperatures and official RECORD high temperatures for that time of the year. I then acknowledge the harsh reality that the UNOFFICIAL highs and UNOFFICIAL lows are even more extreme than the official highs/lows. I then come to the Island fully-prepared to potentially face NEW (unofficial) record low/high temps.

I don't care if the average (OFFICIAL) low temperature in August is 52 degrees and the official record low is 34 degrees. I am going to come prepared for overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s. I am also coming prepared to hike in daytime highs in the upper 30s or low 40s all the way up to the mid-90s or higher. I often achieve this level of preparation through layering and mixing and matching a rather small number of clothing items. I certainly don't bring 20 different jackets and 15 changes of clothing in order to address the various weather scenarios. It is entirely possible to be well-prepared for a wide range of weather conditions--and NOT pack the contents of your entire closet.

Here is a chart (allegedly) showing the OFFICIAL "average" and "record" temps for Isle Royale. Please note that the UNOFFICIAL record temperatures will likely be several degrees lower or higher than these official highs and lows. EXAMPLE: The "official" record low for August may be 34 degrees--but I have UNOFFICIALLY seen my own thermometer read 28 degrees in August. I have also had water --that was left in a cooking pot overnight-- freeze in August).

Expect That You Will Get Wet--and Be Prepared For it!

I tell people to always expect to get very wet on Isle Royale--and to always come prepared to deal with extreme wetness and precipitation. (Then, give thanks and rejoice if everything stays relatively dry).

On Isle Royale, you are almost constantly surrounded by water. Lake Superior is the world's largest freshwater lake. And, Isle Royale is an island that sits in the midst of it. Isle Royale has many inland lakes, creeks, streams, ponds, bogs, and swamps. The humidity levels can sometimes be very high. The morning dew can be extremely heavy--and cover EVERYTHING with wetness. Trails often have places which are covered with water or mud. On top of this, you also have the possibility of rainfall during your trip.

Whether because of recent rain (or because of heavy early morning dew) the thick and tall foliage that envelopes many of the Isle Royale trails can be very wet. And, that wet foliage will transfer that wetness onto you as you walk through it. I have been thoroughly soaked from head-to-toe while walking through some dew-covered trails. Some people even choose to do their very early morning hiking while wearing rain gear --because of the heavy dew and excessive (and wet) foliage that encroaches upon the trails.

With so much wetness--in so many different forms--in so many places--the chances are pretty good that you (and your footwear, clothing, and gear) could become very wet at some point during your Isle Royale trip.

Therefore, it is advisable, to come to the Island prepared to encounter that degree of wetness and humidity -- in terms of your clothing, your footwear, your tent (or other form of shelter), your electronic devices, and your other gear. Remember--the temperatures may also get very cold--so hypothermia is also a risk. BE PREPARED!

An Extreme Rain Story:
One year, I was doing a 10-day hike on Isle Royale. Just as I finished my evening meal on Day # 2 (and at West Chickenbone Campground) it started to rain. It rained all through the night. It was raining when I woke up the next morning (Day # 3 of my trip) . I packed up all of my gear in the midst of a heavy rainstorm. It then rained (hard) all through the day while I hiked. It was also cold and windy.

I reached my planned destination (Hatchet Lake) shortly after midday. I decided to not stop. Instead, I chose to keep walking (in order to help me stay warm) and in hope that the rain would stop and I would not have to set up camp in the rain. I reached South Lake Desor in the very late afternoon. It was still raining. It was still windy and cold--and I was getting close to being hypothermic. I set up camp in the rain. I also prepared and ate my third consecutive meal in the rain. I went to bed while it was still raining.

It rained all night. I packed up in the rain the next morning (Trip Day # 4). Breakfast was prepared and eaten in the rain. I hiked all morning in the rain. I ate lunch in the rain. (This was my fifth consecutive meal in the rain). In the early afternoon, it finally stopped raining--but it didn't really matter. The trails were mostly water and mud. The foliage along the trails was soaked. Water was continually falling off of the trees --and I was soaked (both from my own perspiration inside of my rain gear and from the rainwater that had been "everywhere" for roughly the past 42 hours). When I reached Windigo (Washington Creek Campground)--some gracious people offered to let me share their wooden shelter and to dry out for the next 24-48 hours.

Everyone that I encountered was wet. It didn't matter what clothing, footwear, rain gear, or tent that they had. There is simply no way to stay completely dry (in the outdoors) in the midst of 42 hours of continual rain (and after nearly another day of water falling off of leaves and the ground being saturated--with standing water in many places). In such conditions, you will get wet. The only questions are--how wet will you, your clothing, and gear be-- and will it create a potentially dangerous scenario?

Are you prepared to deal with that degree of wetness if it were to happen during your trip? Could you keep your sleeping bag--and some clothes--dry enough to help you ward off hypothermia?

Heat and Hydration

Heat injuries and dehydration are very real possibilities on Isle Royale--even on days that are cloudy and not extremely warm. This is especially true when hiking on the open and exposed ridges and when out on the open lakes in a boat, canoe, or kayak.

Many people report drinking far more water than they anticipated while on Isle Royale...or they report that they wished that they had carried much more water. (When hiking, this water "problem" is compounded by the fact that water if often difficult to acquire on the Isle Royale trails). On a map, a water source may APPEAR to be close to the trail--but (in reality) it might be nearly impossible to reach (or it will be so smelly and putrid that you won't want to try to filter it).

Thus, be sure to be carrying plenty of water with you when you leave camp in the morning. I typically carry 2-3 liters of water when I depart camp. Some people carry more--some people carry less.

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